Discussion:
A 'worst-case' scenario: How giant insurance losses from L.A. fires could affect all Californians
(too old to reply)
Leroy N. Soetoro
about a month ago
Permalink
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/home-insurance-
disaster-prices-20022809.php

By Megan Fan Munce,
Reporter
Jan 8, 2025

Ethan Swope/Associated Press
As Los Angeles confronts a series of wildfires some experts say could be
the most expensive in California history, the state’s beleaguered
insurance industry also faces the possibility of further destabilization —
with implications far beyond the fire zone.

It’s the type of perfect storm situation that experts have worried about:
massive fires burning through expensive homes, many of which are insured
through the California FAIR Plan, the state insurer of last resort.

Related: State Farm sought huge number of Pacific Palisades nonrenewals
months before fire
So far there has been no comprehensive estimate of the damage and the
potential costs: With strong winds continuing to fuel the flames,
firefighters are focused on saving lives and structures, with a full
damage tally to come later.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain believes it could be the costliest
firestorm the nation has ever seen. The number of buildings burned is
likely far higher than the initial estimate released Wednesday morning of
1,100 structures destroyed. Importantly for insurance, the destruction
includes plenty of high-end homes, with significant replacement costs,
belonging to celebrities and other wealthy people.

“We’re having one of the worst-case scenarios play out right now,” said
Michael Wara, director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at
Stanford University.

The ramifications could well be felt across California. Most obviously,
the massive losses that insurers face could translate to increased rates
for people across the state — particularly in the areas affected by the
fires but also beyond.

It’s also possible that more companies would instead choose to leave the
state, Wara said — an option that a handful of smaller insurance companies
have elected to take over the past two years.

California’s insurance crisis was sparked by the mega-fires of 2017 and
2018, and these new blazes come just as regulators were trying to ease the
situation by encouraging more insurers to stay in, or return to, the state
and provide wider coverage in wildfire-prone areas. State Farm and
Allstate do not currently write new policies in the state, and regulators
had hoped they would reverse their stance.

New state rules that just took effect will make it much easier for
insurers to hike rates by permitting them for the first time to
incorporate the cost of reinsurance — insurance for insurers — into their
rates and rely on forward-looking catastrophe models to assess risk.

In the wake of the ongoing fires, those rate hikes may be even larger than
insurers might have otherwise planned, said Wara.

An overarching worry is the stability of the FAIR Plan, California’s
insurer of last resort. Los Angeles County, where the Palisades, Eaton and
Hurst fires have burned, has a large concentration of policies with the
FAIR Plan as traditional insurers have dropped policyholders due to the
high risk. The plan has an estimated $24.5 billion in exposure across
15,300 residential and commercial policies in the ZIP codes impacted by
the Southern California wildfires, according to a Chronicle analysis of
FAIR Plan data.

Loading...
Over the summer, FAIR Plan President Victoria Roach told the Chronicle the
plan had only about $385 million in reserves to pay for claims. Financial
losses beyond that money and what it can recover from reinsurance, could
burden all of the state’s insurers.

Under state law, if the FAIR Plan were to be overwhelmed, it would be able
to charge regular insurers operating in the state — charges that could
well get passed onto policyholders. On Wednesday, a FAIR Plan spokesperson
wrote in a statement the insurer is “well prepared” for catastrophes such
as these fires.

“It is too early to provide loss estimates as claims are just beginning to
be submitted and processed,” the spokesperson said. “The FAIR Plan has
payment mechanisms in place, including reinsurance, to ensure all covered
claims are paid.”

The California Department of Insurance was not immediately available for
comment.

State officials have long worried about how bad things could get in Los
Angeles County, according to Wara.

In 2019, the year after electricity lines sparked the deadly and
destructive Camp and Dixie fires in Northern California, Wara consulted
with the California Senate as they worked to establish the California
Wildfire Fund. The fund would be used to pay back residents who lose their
homes and property in future utility-caused wildfires. As part of that
work, legislators needed to know just how costly wildfires in the state
could get.

So they used a wildfire catastrophe model to predict what the worst
possible scenarios would be and came up with three options: a massive fire
in the Moraga-Orinda area, the Los Altos Hills or in Pacific Palisades.

The estimated losses from a megafire burning every single home in Pacific
Palisades were somewhere around $30 billion, Wara recalled, without
factoring in post-pandemic inflation rates and inflated reconstruction
costs.

How close a parallel the Palisades Fire is to that scenario remains to be
seen. A full accounting of the insured damage will likely take weeks to
months, and the final bill will determine just how bad things could get.

But California has already shown that the devastating fires of 2017 and
2018 are no longer a fluke — they’re a feature.

“We have been acting as if something like the current or the past approach
to homeowners insurance was a sustainable strategy,” Wara said. “That
assumption may no longer be true, after yesterday and today. That will
change how home ownership works in California, because insurance is
fundamental to home ownership. This is no longer an insurance problem;
this is a home ownership problem.”

Reporter Susie Neilson contributed to this report.

Reach Megan Fan Munce: ***@sfchronicle.com
--
November 5, 2024 - Congratulations President Donald Trump. We look
forward to America being great again.

The disease known as Kamala Harris has been effectively treated and
eradicated.

We live in a time where intelligent people are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.

Durham Report: The FBI has an integrity problem. It has none.

Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.

Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
On Sat, 11 Jan 2025 01:08:05 -0000 (UTC), "Leroy N. Soetoro"
...
This disaster will affect insurance in a massively negative way not
just in California, and not just in the USA. Due tothe way the
insurance industry works, with re-insurance spreading the risk, the
cost od re-insurance will HAVE to go up, increasing the cost of
homeowners/property insurance EVERYWHERE.
As a side effect ALL other "general insurance" served by the
re-insurance industry will go up as well.

The incidence of fire and flood insurance across the USA, and across
the world - severely contributed to by climate change, has ALREADY
been instrumental in increasing your insurance costs, wherever you
live and insure.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Florida has insurance problems too, mostly hurricane related. Some
companies have pulled out.

In the end, we will all pay.
Orca Winfrey
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Pacific Palisades Reservoir Found Empty and Offline During Firestorm Catastrophe – 117 Million Gallons Could Have Saved the Day

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/pacific-palisades-reservoir-found-empy-offline-during-firestorm/

Chief Executive Team Janisse claimed the reservoir was offline due to a tear in the cover.
However, it looks like gross DEI incompetence in the "Team Janisse" water department.
DEI is so much better than meritocracy, no?
In the end, we will all pay.
You're correct, insurance premiums will 'heat up' due to "Team Janisse" incompetence. Federal taxpayers will 'feel the burn' too.
Comerciante_Cuatro
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Any truth to the rumor that this fire was started by an electric car?
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
On Sat, 11 Jan 25 13:55:56 UTC, Comerciante_Cuatro
...
10000 times more likely to have been stated by an ICE car. MANY
instances of dry grass ignited by hot exhaust.
Bob F
about a month ago
Permalink
...
It is way more likely to have been started by electric utilities. I saw
a report that someone was arrested for arson on one of the fires.
Bob F
about a month ago
Permalink
Just saw video on WP of a fire right at the base of a power tower,
clearly just started.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/climate-environment/a-harrowing-escape-from-the-california-wildfires/2025/01/12/6462cb37-59d5-4faa-80ca-bd9daba01ff0_video.html
Comerciante_Cuatro
about a month ago
Permalink
Just saw video on WP of a fire right at the base of a power tower, clearly just started.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/climate-environment/a-harrowing-escape-from-the-california-wildfires/2025/01/12/6462cb37-59d5-4faa-80ca-bd9daba01ff0_video.html
Maybe the tree-huggers with multi-million dollar homes in fire prone areas should re-evaluate their choice of landscaping and building
materials? I've never seen concrete, brick or steel burn.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
Post by Comerciante_Cuatro
Just saw video on WP of a fire right at the base of a power tower, clearly just started.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/climate-environment/a-harrowing-
escape-from-the-california-
wildfires/2025/01/12/6462cb37-59d5-4faa-80ca-bd9daba01ff0_video.html
Maybe the tree-huggers with multi-million dollar homes in fire prone
areas should re-evaluate their choice of landscaping and building
materials?  I've never seen concrete, brick or steel burn.
Correct, it does not burn. Did you see all the concrete and block
buildings that were destroyed?

Failed to load image: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/raw/p0khvdmc.jpg?v=9

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/los-angeles-palisades-california-fires-photos
Retirednoguilt
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Well, insurance rates are based on shared risk. The key questions are
(1) which population should be required to share a specific risk, (2)
which specific risks, e.g. their nature and magnitude justify declaring
a specific person or object uninsurable, and (3) which person or group
is appropriate abd authorized to make those decisions.
Frank
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Each state determines insurance rates and problem in California was
rates were suppressed. Insurance companies were cancelling policies and
bailing out. Almost funny to hear government saying profits were
highest for insurance companies in California. So why were they leaving?
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Question #1 is easy. It will be shared by everyone at some point or the
company will be out of business. Sure, it may be proportional but
everyone will have some inclusion.

My electric bill is going to have a $12 charge this year to cover
hurricane reconstruction.
Orca Winfrey
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Either we need better fire departments or we need to stop building homes out of combustibles.
Retirednoguilt
about a month ago
Permalink
...
According to the reports I saw, at least one of those fires was hot
enough to melt automobile undercarriages. On TV I saw a reporter hold
up a previously molten blob of metal from the remains of an incinerated
car. What construction material do you suggest that won't either melt
or be burnt up by a fire that hot? Tungsten? :-)
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
Post by Clare Snyder
The incidence of fire and flood insurance across the USA, and across
the world - severely contributed to by climate change, has ALREADY
been instrumental in increasing your insurance costs, wherever you
live and insure.
"Climate change" hasn't got anything to do with it . The big problem
is the idiots in charge and their policies . Like preventing filling to
reservoirs to save a fish that is probably already extinct .
As usual , I will not post links to sources you call liars and
misinformation sources .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
So the fire started because of not enough water in the reservoir?
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Quit acting like you're that stupid . You know damn well that the
lack of water was a proximate cause of the fire spreading like it did .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Lack of water due to lack of rain due to CLIMATE CHANGE!!!!!!
Jamaal Bowman
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Truth be told, the typical house has kindling planted around the its perimeter. Probably not a good idea in a high wind fire-prone area.
The tree-hugger's landscaping caused this disaster.
Frank
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Yes, I put it as being crucified on a green cross.
Lizard Cheney
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Exactly!
The hot embers blow up through the soffit vents and into the attic.
Next thing you know, Jamaal Bowman be pulling the fire alarm.
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Oops , I forgot you're a pollock . Silly me .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
OK, now you proved you are a dumb fuck. Did you really have to make a
disparaging remark? Did that give you an orgasm?

You said global warming played no part. It was one of the causes for
the fires to spread and made the conditions for it to do so.

Lack of water may be a factor in spread, but not in starting.

I don't know enough about the water system to comment, but I know there
were problems in fighting the fires. I prefer to wait for facts after
some investigation.
Bob F
about a month ago
Permalink
...
What happens to the water pipes when buildings are burned down in huge
fires. I suspect, they leak tremendous amounts of water. And that water
often comes in the same pipes that feed the hydrants.
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
Post by Ed P
Lack of water may be a factor in spread, but not in starting.
I don't know enough about the water system to comment, but I know there
were problems in fighting the fires.  I prefer to wait for facts after
some investigation.
The lack of water was caused by a decision to try to save a fish -
which may already be extinct . The water was available , they chose to
dump it in the ocean rather than direct it to the reservoirs . That
along with decisions to not clear underbrush or allow limited harvesting
of trees for lumber/firewood/whatever provided the fuel .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
https://tinyurl.com/mk5vv657

Major Southern California reservoirs fed by delta water were near
capacity and above historical levels before the fires broke out. One
reservoir that serves Pacific Palisades, the Santa Ynez, had been
emptied for repairs, but the repairs were crucial and even if full the
reservoir would not have had a significant effect on the firefighting
challenge, experts say.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats have been able to fashion a statewide
water policy that serves all the state's water users fairly — whether
farmers, the fisheries, city dwellers or wildlife.

The fires underscore this failure, but no policy that apportions the
state's supply among those claimants could have saved the communities
destroyed by fire over the last week.

But the ignorance displayed by Trump and his followers doesn't help one bit.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
...
OK ED , you win . I'm too stupid to even be posting on usenet . I
abase myself to your superior omnipresent omniscience .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Just skip Alex Jones and look for facts.
Snag
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Fuck off .
--
Snag
We live in a time where intelligent people
are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Ah, so you were correct when you said you were too stupid to post.
Alex Jones is a known liar yet people read his crap and believe him.
Ask him how the Sandy Hook deal is going for him.
Rachael Madcow
about a month ago
Permalink
Alex Jones is a known liar yet people read his crap and believe him. Ask him how the Sandy Hook deal is going for him.
Alex was bankrupted for misreporting some news.

Have the 51 lying intelligence agents been bankrupted yet? Shouldn't election interference of the highest office in the country be prosecuted?

FWIW, Alex may have slightly tarnished his own credibility, but the 51 lying intelligence agents fucking severly damaged the credibility of the
United States.


Just out of curiousity, was anyone prosecuted for the Dan Blather typewriter hoax?
https://www.physics.smu.edu/pseudo/Hoaxes/cbsmemos/index.html

How about the other news network that planted incendiary devices under the GM pickup truck?
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1993-02-10-mn-1335-story.html

MSM cabal gets a pass, Alex gets total bankruptcy.
Sound lawful to you?
Jim Joyce
about a month ago
Permalink
On Wed, 15 Jan 2025 05:53:19 -0500, Rachael Madcow
Post by Rachael Madcow
Shouldn't election interference of the highest office in the country be prosecuted?
It should, but the DOJ has a policy of not prosecuting a sitting
President.
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
...
We know he's got a "Yuge" vocabulary - - -
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
...
So now the terribly intelligent Snag has to show off his superior
grasp of the English language, does he????
Cindy Hamilton
about a month ago
Permalink
Post by Clare Snyder
Post by Snag
Fuck off .
So now the terribly intelligent Snag has to show off his superior
grasp of the English language, does he????
He's a master of rhetoric.
--
Cindy Hamilton
Ed P
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Ah, so you were correct when you said you were too stupid to post.
Alex Jones is a known liar yet people read his crap and believe him.
Ask him how the Sandy Hook deal is going for him.
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
...
We live in a time where perhaps stupid people
should being silent so that
intelligent people are not offended?
bud--
about a month ago
Permalink
...
1. Last year (or one before) there was too much rain - heavy growth of
plant material.
2. There has been almost no rain since May - plenty of dead very dry
plant material.
3. Water storage was full, or nearly (except reservoir being repaired).
4, You can't build a water system that supplies enough water to fight
fires that massive.
5. The fire spread by Santa Anna winds - 70 mph or more.
6. With wind that fast water (and firefighters) are irrelevant - it is
impossible to stop embers that blow and ignite more fires far away.
7. With high wind the airplanes and helicopters that drop water can't fly.
8. The terrain is hilly. Heavy water use lowers the pressure which can
give zero pressured higher elevations.

Climate change contributed to 1, 2, 5, particularly 2.

It is not surprising there were fires this damaging - the only surprise
is when. That is why insurance companies are not writing policies.


Concerning "I heard", I heard Donald Trump flew to California and
started the fires. I didn't hear whether he was driving an electric car.

--
We are living in a time when stupid people believe anything their cult
leaders say.

Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Hey, how do you fill reservoirs when it hasn't rained for 9
months????
Jamaal Bowman
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Desalination? Is LA near an ocean?
Might be cheaper than a massive fire?
Fishrrman
about a month ago
Permalink
Post by Leroy N. Soetoro
As Los Angeles confronts a series of wildfires some experts say could be
the most expensive in California history, the state’s beleaguered
insurance industry also faces the possibility of further destabilization —
with implications far beyond the fire zone.
Prediction:
The home/fire insurance industry will collapse in California.
The companies that don't go bankrupt will pull out of the
state as soon as they're legally able.

Some may not wait -- might be cheaper to pay fines after
losing in court, than it would be to pay future claims.

As a result, I expect to see the emergence of "single-payer"
insurance in California. Not unlike the concept of
single-payer health insurance (which the leftists/communists
want).

Might affect the mortgage industry as well.
How will buyers who can't get fire insurance get mortgages ??
Racheal Madcow
about a month ago
Permalink
...
I heard the fire was started by some lefty libtard's electric car.
Maybe Commiefornia should ban electric vehicles?
Cindy Hamilton
about a month ago
Permalink
...
"I heard" ? Is that what passes for evidence in your bubble?
--
Cindy Hamilton
Clare Snyder
about a month ago
Permalink
On Sun, 12 Jan 2025 15:07:46 -0000 (UTC), Cindy Hamilton
...
It works for Trump - - -
Al Burt Boarla
about a month ago
Permalink
...
It works for BigPharma's vaxxxine nazis.
They convinced millions of people that the vaxxxines were safe and effective, despite no evidence to back up that claim.
Biden lied, people died.
Jimmie Carvill
about a month ago
Permalink
...
Q: Did Democrat E. Gene Carole need proof?

A: Nope, not a shred of credible evidence. Just needed a crooked judge and some low IQ jurors.


Drag a $100 bill through a trailer camp and there's no telling what you will find.
Bob F
about a month ago
Permalink
...
And then, there is a clear video of one of the fires starting right
underneath a utility tower.
Mayor Karen B. Ass
about a month ago
Permalink
[snip]
Post by Jimmie Carvill
"I heard" ?  Is that what passes for evidence in your bubble?
Q: Did Democrat E. Gene Carole need proof?
A: Nope, not a shred of credible evidence. Just needed a crooked judge and some low IQ jurors.
Drag a $100 bill through a trailer camp and there's no telling what you will find.
And then, there is a clear video of one of the fires starting right underneath a utility tower.
So why did the arsonist choose to start the fire under a utility tower?
Loading...